Self-driving Vehicles

Modern airliners can fly and land under control of on-board computers.

Google has been experimenting with cars that can drive themselves.  Many others, including a number of automobile manufacturers are also heavily investing in this technology.

I noted a few weeks ago that Nevada has started the process of investigating how laws should treat cars that can operate autonomously. 

I think that's great.  We can't get there soon enough.  Here's why...

THE PROBLEM

A quick scan of the web turned up the following statistics:

1. Approximately 30,000 people die in traffic accidents per year - just in the US.  The number is 1.2 million across the world - or 1/4 of all accidental deaths.

2. Drunk driving accounts for 1/3 of that total - staggering - not in a funny way

3. There are about 8 collision coverage claims per 100 insured per year, with an average payout of $4100 per claim. (US numbers)

4. Because of all of this, people (you and I) must pay the insurance companies (just in the US) about $110 million per year, with about 70% of that going for the actual claims and 7% going to profits.

That's the cost of   PEOPLE   DRIVING !

OK.  Now let's consider other costs.

a) How about inefficient utilization of the roads ?  Inefficiency means more road investment than necessary.

b) How about inefficient use of commuting time ?  US residents spend more than 100 hours per year commuting alone.

c) How about the price of fuel ?  Yeah, we all understand that one!


Putting it simply, autonomous vehicles (self-driving cars and trucks) will have a powerful effect:

1. Reduction of accidents, in particular reduction of drunk-driving related accidents
2. More efficient use of roadways - dramatically increasing vehicle packing means paying for less roadbuilding
3. More efficient use of fuel - yup, computers can do a better job that us
4. Reallocation of time spent traveling for business or personal use - who couldn't use an extra 100 hours per year ?

and

A large portion of the 1.2 million people identified above simply won't die and many, many more won't be injured.

SO.  HOW DO WE GET THERE ?

First, the policy makers must start treating this as a priority.  Call your representative.

Second, the law makers must resolve how to treat this new technology so that it can be deployed.

MONEY

There is lots of money to be made in this new industry.   Lots !

Just as the cell phone market is reaching saturation, this will spawn a new industry for vehicle-based communication and computing technologies. The autonomous vehicle will become the next focus for innovation.  

There most definitely WILL be an App for that !


Predictions from Nostradavis

a. New cars will come equipped for autonomous operation
b. New cars, not your friends, won't let drunk drivers drive drunk
c. Roadways will start to become designated for autonomous vehicles
d. Insurance incentives will be given for autonomous vehicles
e A new wave of "apps" will spring up to support entertainment in autonomous vehicles
f. Every autonomous vehicle will be equipped with mobile computing and TV
g. Providing wireless telecommunications to autonomous vehicles will provide a new wave of business for communication providers (what used to be called cable companies and telecom companies)
h. A business for retrofitting older cars will spring up
i. Eventually, most roadways will become restricted to autonomous vehicles
j. The resultant shifts in spending will be initially resisted, but the tide is inevitable.

Got more ?    let me know.

Got ideas on how to get this going?   please share.